The question
Five years is the minimum horizon most advisers give for an equity SIP. This post asks what it has actually delivered in the Nifty 50, not for one start date but for every month since the record begins in January 1999.
Method. A ₹1,000 instalment goes in on the first trading day of each month for 60 months, so ₹60,000 is invested in all. The pot is valued at the last close of the 60th month. The figures are for the Nifty 50's price index, so dividends are left out, and fund costs are not deducted. For ten-year windows with dividends reinvested, see our ten-year Nifty 50 SIP study.
The spread of outcomes
There are 275 windows, from a January 1999 start to a November 2021 start (the last one ends on 13 October 2026, partly through its final month).
| Outcome | Result |
|---|---|
| Median | 1.39 times the money invested |
| Worst | 0.90 times (start April 2015) |
| Best | 3.00 times (start November 2002) |
| Ended at 1.5 times or more | 28% of windows |
| Ended below 1.2 times | 16% of windows |
| Ended below 1.0 times | 4 of 275 |
A median of 1.39 times is a gain of 39% on the money put in. Because the money went in gradually, the average rupee was invested for about two and a half years, so this is not the same as a five-year annual return.
By start year
| Start year | Lowest | Highest | Windows below 1.0 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1999 | 1.22 | 1.62 | 0 |
| 2002 | 2.26 | 3.00 | 0 |
| 2003 | 1.00 | 2.96 | 1 |
| 2004 | 0.97 | 1.59 | 1 |
| 2007 | 1.01 | 1.24 | 0 |
| 2008 | 1.13 | 1.29 | 0 |
| 2015 | 0.90 | 1.31 | 2 |
| 2019 | 1.52 | 1.66 | 0 |
| 2021 | 1.09 | 1.35 | 0 |
The dispersion within one year can be wide. SIPs started in 2003 ended between 1.00 and 2.96 times, depending on which month they began. The December 2003 start, at the bottom of that range, had its five years end in the November 2008 fall.
The four that lost
| Start | End | Value of ₹60,000 invested |
|---|---|---|
| December 2003 | November 2008 | about ₹59,900 |
| March 2004 | February 2009 | about ₹58,300 |
| April 2015 | March 2020 | about ₹53,900 |
| June 2015 | May 2020 | about ₹60,000 |
None of the four was a bad entry in itself. Each simply had its final valuation date in or just after a crash, in the 2008 fall or the March 2020 low. Two of the four finished within ₹150 of breakeven.
The class of 2021
SIPs begun in mid-2021 sit in a lower band than almost every other recent cohort:
| Start | Multiple of money invested |
|---|---|
| June 2021 | 1.16 (to May 2026) |
| July 2021 | 1.17 (to June 2026) |
| August 2021 | 1.19 (to July 2026) |
| September 2021 | 1.16 (to August 2026) |
| October 2021 | 1.09 (to September 2026) |
| November 2021 | 1.09 (to 13 October 2026) |
These all began in the months before the index's October 2021 peak and then ran into the 2022 fall and this year's. Their results sit 0.20 to 0.30 below the median of 1.39.
What to take from it
Five years has usually been enough to come out ahead on the Nifty 50 SIP: 271 of 275 windows did. But it has not always been enough to come out comfortably ahead, and the four exceptions show that the end date matters as much as the start. A SIP calculator will model your own amounts. Nothing in this study is advice to buy or sell.
Frequently asked questions
Can a five-year SIP in the Nifty 50 lose money?
It has, rarely. Of 275 five-year windows, with start months from January 1999 to November 2021, four ended below the amount invested: December 2003, March 2004, April 2015 and June 2015. The worst turned ₹60,000 into about ₹53,900. Each ended in or just after a crash. These are price returns, without dividends.
What did a typical five-year Nifty 50 SIP return?
The median window ended with 1.39 times the money invested, so ₹1,000 a month (₹60,000 in total) became about ₹83,000. Across all windows, 28% ended at 1.5 times or more and 16% below 1.2 times. The range was 0.90 to 3.00 times.
How are SIPs started in 2021 doing after five years?
For a ₹1,000 monthly SIP begun in June 2021, the five years to May 2026 ended at 1.16 times the money invested. One begun in November 2021 stood at 1.09 times on 13 October 2026, its final instalment already made but the month not yet over.
This is commentary on published data, not investment advice. WealthTicker is not a SEBI-registered adviser or distributor. Figures are WealthTicker’s own calculations from public data — AMFI’s fund NAVs and disclosures, NSE’s index and FII/DII files, and the fund houses’ monthly portfolios (how we calculate). They are as of the dates stated and can be revised by their source.
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