The question
Does the Nifty 50 behave differently in different calendar months? This post splits the index's month-end closes, from the Nifty 50 price index, into the twelve months of the year. Our data has daily closes from February 2012, so the full years are 2013 to 2025, 13 observations per month, and 2026 is shown separately. The figures are price returns and leave out dividends.
The table
| Month | Average | Median | Up years (of 13) | Worst | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | +0.16% | −0.29% | 4 | −4.8% (2016) | +6.4% (2015) |
| Feb | −1.61% | −2.03% | 5 | −7.6% (2016) | +6.6% (2021) |
| Mar | +0.83% | +1.57% | 9 | −23.2% (2020) | +10.8% (2016) |
| Apr | +2.44% | +1.42% | 9 | −3.6% (2015) | +14.7% (2020) |
| May | +1.96% | +1.71% | 9 | −3.0% (2022) | +8.0% (2014) |
| Jun | +1.39% | +0.89% | 7 | −4.8% (2022) | +7.5% (2020) |
| Jul | +2.50% | +2.94% | 10 | −5.7% (2019) | +8.7% (2022) |
| Aug | +0.47% | +1.14% | 7 | −6.6% (2015) | +8.7% (2021) |
| Sep | +0.15% | +0.13% | 7 | −6.4% (2018) | +4.8% (2013) |
| Oct | +1.91% | +3.51% | 10 | −6.2% (2024) | +9.8% (2013) |
| Nov | +1.44% | +1.50% | 7 | −4.8% (2016) | +11.4% (2020) |
| Dec | +1.09% | +0.14% | 7 | −3.6% (2014) | +7.9% (2023) |
What stands out
February is the weak month. Eight of 13 were down, the median is −2.03%, and compounding the 13 Februaries gives a loss of about 20% while the 13 Julys compound to a gain of 36%.
July and October were the most reliable. Both rose in 10 of 13 years. July has the highest average, +2.50%, and October the highest median, 3.51%, though October's average is lower because of 2018 and 2024.
April's average is skewed. Its +2.44% is lifted by April 2020's 14.7% rebound from the March 2020 crash; its median is a more modest +1.42%.
March carries the worst single month. March 2020's 23.2% fall is far outside any other observation, and it drags March's average down to +0.83% though nine of 13 Marches were up.
September and January are flat. Their averages are +0.15% and +0.16%, and their medians are near zero.
Where 2026 fits
| Month of 2026 | Nifty 50 | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Jan | 25,320.65 | −3.10% |
| Feb | 25,178.65 | −0.56% |
| Mar | 22,331.40 | −11.31% |
| Apr | 23,997.55 | +7.46% |
| May | 23,547.75 | −1.87% |
| Jun | 23,865.75 | +1.35% |
| Jul | 24,383.60 | +2.17% |
| Aug | 24,080.40 | −1.24% |
| Sep | 22,620.45 | −6.06% |
| Oct (to 6 Oct) | 22,776.10 | +0.69% |
Month-end figures are the last close in each month. February 2026 went the usual way, down, but only by 0.56%. March's fall of 11.3% is the second-worst March from 2013 to 2026, behind only 2020, and April's rebound of 7.5% is the second-best April, behind only 2020's 14.7%. September's 6.06% fall is the second-worst September; only 2018, at −6.42%, was worse. July was up, as in 10 of the 13 earlier years.
October so far is +0.69% from the end of September. The month has a good record in this sample, but a six-day gain says nothing about the other 25.
Why this is a weak guide
Thirteen is a small number. One extreme month such as March 2020 or April 2020 changes an average by more than a percentage point.
The spread is wide. Even October, the most consistent month, ranged from −6.2% to +9.8%.
Months share causes. A year of FII selling or a global sell-off hits several months at once, so the twelve rows are not twelve independent tests.
It leaves out dividends and the effect of index changes.
For anyone investing monthly through a SIP, the point is to buy through all of these months, the weak ones included. Our ten-year SIP test for every start month tests a SIP begun in each month of the year, and the guide on rupee-cost averaging explains why a falling month can help a regular investor.
Where to go from here
Calendar-year returns are in our Nifty 50 yearly returns post, and the history of large falls is in the Nifty correction history. For this year's September, see the Nifty 50 P/E post for October.
Frequently asked questions
Which month has been weakest for the Nifty 50?
February. Across the 13 years 2013 to 2025 the Nifty 50 fell in eight Februaries and rose in five, with an average of −1.61% and a median of −2.03%. Compounded over the 13 years, the Februaries alone lose about 20%.
Is October a good month for the Nifty 50?
It has been kind to the index: 10 of the 13 Octobers from 2013 to 2025 were up, with a median of +3.51% and an average of +1.91%. But October 2024 fell 6.22% and October 2018 fell 4.98%, so it offers no guarantee. October 2026 is +0.69% as of 6 October.
Should I time my SIP by calendar month?
The data does not support it. Thirteen observations per month is a small sample, the best and worst years for each month are far apart, and a SIP buys every month anyway. Calendar patterns describe the past rather than predict the future.
This is commentary on published data, not investment advice. WealthTicker is not a SEBI-registered adviser or distributor. Figures are as of the dates stated and can be revised by their source.
Keep reading
Tata, Mahindra, Aditya Birla group indices in 2026
Since 31 December 2025 NSE's Mahindra Group index is down 17.1% and Tata Group 16.5%, while Aditya Birla Group is up 1.4%. The Nifty 50 is down 12.8%.
Low-volatility indices lost 3 points less than the Nifty 50
In 2026 to 1 October the Nifty Low Volatility 50 fell 10.98% against 14.19% for the Nifty 50. Over three years it gained 7.54% a year to the Nifty's 4.52%.
Nifty 50 returns over 1, 3, 5, 10 and 15 years
The Nifty 50 returned 10.14% a year on price, about 11.5% with dividends, in the ten years to 30 September 2026. Every period, and why the last five stand out.