The question
A month in which the market falls 8% or more feels like a moment to act, one way or the other. This post lists every such month in the Nifty 50's daily record since 1999 and shows what the index did over the next three and twelve months. Months are calendar months, measured from the last close of the previous month to the last close of the month.
Every month with a fall of 8% or more
| Month | Fall in the month | Next 3 months | Next 12 months |
|---|---|---|---|
| April 1999 | −9.3% | +33.9% | +43.8% |
| July 2000 | −9.4% | −12.0% | −19.5% |
| September 2000 | −8.8% | −0.6% | −28.1% |
| March 2001 | −15.0% | −3.5% | −1.6% |
| September 2001 | −13.3% | +15.9% | +5.4% |
| July 2002 | −9.3% | −0.8% | +23.7% |
| March 2003 | −8.0% | +15.9% | +81.1% |
| May 2004 | −17.4% | +10.0% | +40.7% |
| October 2005 | −8.9% | +26.6% | +57.9% |
| May 2006 | −13.7% | +11.2% | +39.9% |
| February 2007 | −8.3% | +14.7% | +39.5% |
| January 2008 | −16.3% | +0.6% | −44.0% |
| March 2008 | −9.4% | −14.7% | −36.2% |
| June 2008 | −17.0% | −3.0% | +6.2% |
| September 2008 | −10.1% | −24.5% | +29.7% |
| October 2008 | −26.4% | −0.4% | +63.3% |
| January 2011 | −10.2% | +4.4% | −5.6% |
| August 2011 | −8.8% | −3.4% | +5.1% |
| November 2011 | −9.3% | +11.4% | +21.7% |
| March 2020 | −23.2% | +19.8% | +70.9% |
| March 2026 | −11.3% | +6.9% | – |
The last row has no twelve-month figure because a year has not yet passed.
What followed
- 20 months qualify and have a full year after them.
- The index was higher twelve months later in 14 of them and lower in 6.
- The median twelve-month change after such a month was +22.7%. For all months, the median was +10.9% and the index was higher a year later 73% of the time.
- The worst outcome followed January 2008: −44.0% over the next year. The best followed March 2003: +81.1%.
Why the sample is small and clustered
Falls this size arrive in clusters, such as the global financial crisis in 2008, the pandemic in 2020, and the 2026 correction, so 20 months are not 20 independent tests. Several of the entries sit within a few months of each other and share the same recovery.
What to take from it
- A big monthly fall has usually been followed by a higher index a year on, but not always, and it can fall further first.
- Over the next three months the median change was +4.4%, and the index was lower in 9 of the 21 cases that have three months of data, so the fall often continued before it turned.
- It is a description of the past, not a signal. Investors who put in a fixed amount each month through falls like these are covered by the SIP in a falling market post and the five-year Nifty SIP record.
Source: NSE Nifty 50 daily closes, January 1999 to 16 October 2026, last close of each month; price index, without dividends.
Frequently asked questions
What happened to the Nifty 50 a year after an 8% monthly fall?
Since 1999, 20 calendar months ended 8% or more lower and have a full year of data after them. The Nifty 50 was higher twelve months later in 14 of them, with a median change of +22.7%. The range ran from −44.0% (after January 2008) to +81.1% (after March 2003).
How often does the Nifty 50 fall 8% in a month?
21 times in 333 monthly changes since 1999, or about 6.3% of months.
Is it a good time to invest after a big monthly fall?
The record is mixed and the sample is small, so it does not settle the question. For comparison, across all months the Nifty 50 was higher twelve months later 73% of the time with a median of +10.9%.
This is commentary on published data, not investment advice. WealthTicker is not a SEBI-registered adviser or distributor. Figures are WealthTicker’s own calculations from public data — AMFI’s fund NAVs and disclosures, NSE’s index and FII/DII files, and the fund houses’ monthly portfolios (how we calculate). They are as of the dates stated and can be revised by their source.
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