Nifty 50 up 4.9% since 22 October; silver down 9.7%

The window

This recap runs from the 22 October close, where our previous weekly recap stopped, to the 3 November close, the latest session in our NSE data. It covers 8 sessions. Gold and silver are compared on the same two dates.

Equities: a rebound led by defensives

The Nifty 50 closed at 23,810.85 on 3 November, 4.95% above its 22,687.65 close on 22 October. It was not a straight line. The index slipped to 22,600.00 on 23 October, drifted near 22,700 through 28 October, then closed higher on each of the last four sessions we have: 22,936.75, 23,053.10, 23,440.80 and 23,810.85. The last two sessions alone added 1.68% and 1.58%.

Twelve of the 13 indices rose. Two features stand out against the previous week, when only two of the same 13 rose.

• The order of size reversed its role. The Nifty 50 gained 4.95%, the Midcap 150 2.35% and the Smallcap 250 1.22%. In the week to 22 October the smaller the index, the bigger the fall; in this window the smaller the index, the smaller the recovery. Smaller companies lost more and have so far regained less.
• PSU banks, the only gainers last time, were the only decliners now. Nifty PSU Bank was +2.01% in the earlier window and -0.20% in this one. Nifty Private Bank, which lost 3.01% then, regained 2.55%.

Nifty Pharma and FMCG led, two defensive sectors rather than the cyclical ones. For where each index stands on valuation after the move, see 18 NSE indices ranked by P/E.

Institutional flows

NSE's provisional figures exist for five of the eight sessions: 23, 28 and 30 October, and 2 and 3 November. There are no rows for 26, 27 and 29 October, so the totals below cover only the five days shown.

FIIs were net buyers on all five days, ₹15,310 crore in total, and 3 November alone was ₹6,837 crore. DIIs, who bought ₹3,235 crore on 23 October, turned net sellers on the last three days, by ₹1,010 crore over the five. Foreign money was buying the rise and domestic institutions were taking some profit. For the full month, see FIIs sold ₹46,996 crore in October, then bought three sessions running, and for daily detail the FII/DII data page.

Gold and silver

The metals moved the other way from equities. Gold lost 2.58% and silver nearly four times as much, 9.73%. Silver has always been the more volatile of the two, so the larger move is in character; our post on gold and silver against their January peaks shows how far both now sit from their highs.

What to take from it

Eight sessions are a short window, and the numbers above are index and price changes, not forecasts. They show a rebound that was broad by count (12 of 13 indices) but uneven by size, and a move into equities by foreign investors that coincided with a fall in both precious metals. Whether any of it lasts is not something these figures can say.