The question
October is the month in which Indian markets mark Diwali, results season begins and, in 2026, institutional selling has been heavy. So how has the Nifty 50 actually done in Octobers? Using month-end closes of the index price series from the database, October has been a middling month: the index rose in 16 of 27 Octobers between 1999 and 2025, with an average change of 0.50% and a median of 1.47%.
Each figure is the change from the September month-end close to the October month-end close, in the price index (no dividends).
Every October since 1999
| Year | Oct change | Year | Oct change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1999 | -6.20% | 2013 | +9.83% |
| 2000 | -7.78% | 2014 | +4.49% |
| 2001 | +6.35% | 2015 | +1.47% |
| 2002 | -1.22% | 2016 | +0.31% |
| 2003 | +9.79% | 2017 | +5.59% |
| 2004 | +2.37% | 2018 | -4.98% |
| 2005 | -8.86% | 2019 | +3.51% |
| 2006 | +4.34% | 2020 | +3.51% |
| 2007 | +17.51% | 2021 | +0.30% |
| 2008 | -26.41% | 2022 | +5.37% |
| 2009 | -7.32% | 2023 | -2.84% |
| 2010 | -0.20% | 2024 | -6.22% |
| 2011 | +7.76% | 2025 | +4.51% |
| 2012 | -1.47% | 2026 (to 19 Oct) | +1.19% |
The best October was 2007 (+17.51%) and the worst 2008 (-26.41%), the two largest moves in the list sitting a year apart. Of the 11 down Octobers, seven fell in 1999–2010 (1999, 2000, 2002, 2005, 2008, 2009, 2010) and four since (2012, 2018, 2023, 2024).
How October ranks among the months
Using the same method for all twelve months across 1999–2025:
| Month | Years up | Years | Average | Median |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | 10 | 26 | -0.28% | -0.43% |
| Feb | 14 | 27 | -0.39% | 0.41% |
| Mar | 15 | 27 | 0.39% | 1.11% |
| Apr | 15 | 27 | 1.23% | 1.24% |
| May | 15 | 27 | 1.38% | 1.49% |
| Jun | 18 | 27 | 1.64% | 1.86% |
| Jul | 19 | 27 | 2.07% | 2.94% |
| Aug | 17 | 27 | 1.50% | 0.65% |
| Sep | 16 | 27 | 1.16% | 0.75% |
| Oct | 16 | 27 | 0.50% | 1.47% |
| Nov | 17 | 27 | 2.76% | 3.81% |
| Dec | 18 | 27 | 2.69% | 2.07% |
October's hit rate (59%) is the same as September's and lower than June, July, August, November and December. Its average is the fourth lowest of the twelve, mostly because of 2008. Its median of 1.47% is mid-table. The honest summary is that the sample is too noisy to call October either a strong or a weak month: a 59% hit rate over 27 observations is not far from a coin that lands heads 55% of the time.
November and December have the best averages in the history (2.76% and 2.69%). That is a fact about 27 past years, not a promise about the next two.
Where 2026 stands
The database's latest Nifty 50 price close is 19 October: 22,888.95, against 22,620.45 at the end of September. That is +1.19% month to date, with about a third of the month still to run, and the index is still down about 12% since the start of 2026; see the 2026 year-to-date comparison.
An October that ended where it stands would rank 15th of 28 on this table, counting 2026: 14 Octobers were higher. The rest of the month will decide that, and nothing in a history of calendar months says how.
Related
- Nifty 50 by calendar month, 2013–2026 covers the same idea for the recent years.
- Nifty 50 returns by weekday since 1999 looks at the other seasonal cut.
- Institutional flows in October so far show who has been buying and selling.
Figures are the price index only, from month-end closes in the WealthTicker database as of 19 October 2026. They are commentary on history, not a forecast.
Frequently asked questions
How often has the Nifty 50 risen in October?
In 16 of the 27 Octobers from 1999 to 2025, measured from the September month-end close to the October month-end close (price index, no dividends).
What was the average October return?
0.50% on average and 1.47% at the median. The average is dragged down by October 2008, when the index fell 26.41%; leaving that year out, the average of the other 26 is about 1.5%.
How is October 2026 doing?
The Nifty 50 closed at 22,888.95 on 19 October, 1.19% above its 30 September close of 22,620.45, the latest close in the database's price history.
This is commentary on published data, not investment advice. WealthTicker is not a SEBI-registered adviser or distributor. Figures are WealthTicker’s own calculations from public data — AMFI’s fund NAVs and disclosures, NSE’s index and FII/DII files, and the fund houses’ monthly portfolios (how we calculate). They are as of the dates stated and can be revised by their source.
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