India VIX at 26.73: the highest close since June 2024

Where the gauge stands

India VIX closed at 26.73 on Monday 23 March 2026. On the same day the Nifty 50 fell 2.60% to 22,512.65.

That is the highest VIX close since 4 June 2024, when it ended at 26.75. At the end of February it stood at 13.70. In three weeks it has nearly doubled, up 95%.

The figures are NSE's daily closing values, which we hold from 14 May 2014.

What the number means

India VIX is built from the prices of Nifty 50 options. It is the market's estimate of how much the index will move over the next 30 days, expressed as an annualised percentage. It says nothing about direction: a VIX of 26.73 is a bet on a large move, up or down.

A rough way to read it is to divide by 3.46 (the square root of 12) for a one-month figure. On that rule:

That is an approximation, not NSE's own calculation, and it treats roughly two months in three as falling inside the range.

How it climbed through March

Every VIX close in March has been above 17. In February the highest was 14.36.

The pattern is plain. On 14 of March's 15 sessions so far, VIX and the Nifty moved in opposite directions. The gauge jumped on the days the index fell (25% on 2 March, 23% on 4 March, 22% on 19 March) and eased when it rose (−19% on 10 March). The one exception, 20 March, saw VIX unchanged at 22.81.

Over the same three weeks the Nifty 50 has fallen 10.6%, from 25,178.65 on 27 February to 22,512.65. It is 14.5% below its record close of 26,328.55, set on 2 January.

Expected against actual

VIX is a forecast. It can be set against what the index actually did.

Measured the same way (the annualised standard deviation of daily returns), the Nifty's actual volatility from 2 to 23 March was 23.7%. In February it was 14.7%. So the option market's 26.73 is pricing somewhat rougher water than March has delivered so far, while in February VIX, which averaged 12.91, ran below what actually happened.

Where 26.73 sits in the record

Of 2,915 closes since 14 May 2014, only 100, about 3.4%, were at 26.73 or above. Three in four of them, 75, came between March and June 2020, with one more in July 2020. The rest: ten in February and March 2022, six in May 2019, six spread across 2014, 2015 and 2021, one on 4 June 2024, and now one this month.

The record low is the striking line. VIX closed at 9.15 on 26 December 2025, the calmest reading in our twelve-year record, less than three months before this spike. Its 2026 average was 11.81 in January and 12.91 in February.

What this does not tell you

VIX is not a timing signal. The record shows it rising with stress. It does not show when the stress ends, or how far the index falls before it does.

It measures expectation, not risk to your fund. A fund's own volatility depends on what it holds. A small-cap or sectoral fund can swing well beyond what the Nifty's VIX implies.

The rule of thumb is rough. It assumes moves follow a bell curve, which index returns often do not, and VIX looks only 30 days ahead.

None of this is advice to buy, sell or hedge anything.

Where to go from here

For how the month's fall has played out, read our posts on the Nifty 50's March correction and small-cap funds in the fall. The Nifty P/E page shows what lower prices have done to valuations. And the psychology of a market crash is a useful read when the gauge is this high.