Diwali to Diwali: Nifty 50 returns in every Samvat

The Hindu new year, measured in Nifty points

On Diwali evening the stock exchanges open for about an hour of Muhurat trading, a ritual start to the new Samvat year. Brokers mark it with their annual stock picks, and newspapers report how the market did "from Diwali to Diwali".

That makes the Samvat year a popular way to measure the market. Here is every one since our daily Nifty 50 series begins.

Every Samvat since 2064

Each year runs from the last regular close before one Diwali to the last regular close before the next. The returns are for the Nifty 50 price index, without dividends.

Over the 18 complete Samvat years, the Nifty rose in 14 and fell in 4. The median Samvat return was about 10.3%.

What stands out

The extremes sit side by side. Samvat 2064 began within days of the market's 2007 peak and ended near the October 2008 low, a loss of 55.71%. The very next Samvat more than doubled the index. Anyone judging the market on one Diwali-to-Diwali year in that stretch would have drawn the wrong conclusion either way.

Samvat 2077 was the Covid recovery. It started in November 2020, months after the crash, and returned 40.17% as the market recovered to new highs.

Samvat 2082 is on course to be one of the weak ones. With a few weeks left, the index is 13.24% below its level before Diwali 2025, after peaking in January 2026. Only Samvat 2064 and 2067 ended with deeper losses in our record. Whether 2082 ends near this figure depends on the weeks before this year's Diwali.

Is the Samvat year special?

Not in any way the numbers show. A Samvat year is simply a twelve-month window that happens to start in October or November. The median Samvat return of about 10.3% is close to the median of all one-year Nifty returns since 2007, which is 9.95% on price, measured from every trading day. Our rolling-returns table has the full distribution, and the calendar-year table shows the same index on a January start.

The festival is a fine reminder to review your money: the annual portfolio audit is a good Diwali ritual. It is not a reason to change your allocation, and a broker's "Muhurat picks" list is a marketing tradition rather than a forecast.

If you want to start something this Diwali

• A SIP, rather than a one-day bet. A token Muhurat purchase is harmless, but a monthly SIP spreads your buying over the whole year. The SIP calculator shows what a regular amount builds to.
• Gold, if you are buying it anyway. Dhanteras and Diwali are the traditional days for it; gold vs Nifty 50 compares what each has returned, and SGB vs gold ETF vs physical gold covers how to hold it.
• A one-time bonus. If you have a festive bonus to invest, our guide to investing ₹1 lakh works through it by time horizon.

How we measured

• Diwali here is the day of Lakshmi Puja, when the Muhurat session is held. The exchanges are closed for regular trading that day, so each Samvat starts at the close of the previous trading day. Muhurat sessions held at weekends are absent from our daily series, so we leave every Muhurat session out for consistency.
• Samvat 2064 began at Diwali 2007, and Samvat 2082 at Diwali 2025.
• Figures are for the price index; dividends would add about a point and a half a year.

Sources. Nifty 50 closes from NSE Indices. Muhurat trading dates and timings are announced each year by NSE and BSE.

This article is for education, not investment advice. Past returns do not predict future ones.