The question
Our earlier post ranked India among all 185 economies the IMF covers. This one narrows the field to the G20, the group India's economy is usually measured against, and asks a different question: how has India's position moved since before the 2008 financial crisis?
The figures are general government gross debt as a share of GDP, from the IMF's World Economic Outlook (April 2026 edition), as charted on our debt-to-GDP page. That page shows 2025 as the latest actual year. 2031 is an IMF projection, and is labelled as one everywhere below.
The G20 also includes the European Union and the African Union. The IMF publishes no series for the G20 as a group, so this post uses the 19 member countries and their median.
The table
| Country | 2007 | 2025 | 2031 (IMF projection) | Change 2007–25 | Projected change 2025–31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Japan | 150.4% | 206.5% | 192.8% | +56.1 | −13.7 |
| Italy | 103.5% | 137.1% | 136.1% | +33.6 | −1.0 |
| United States | 64.9% | 123.9% | 142.1% | +59.0 | +18.2 |
| France | 65.5% | 116.0% | 120.7% | +50.5 | +4.7 |
| Canada | 67.2% | 113.5% | 103.5% | +46.3 | −10.0 |
| United Kingdom | 43.0% | 102.3% | 102.6% | +59.3 | +0.3 |
| China | 28.7% | 99.2% | 126.8% | +70.5 | +27.6 |
| Brazil | 63.0% | 93.3% | 106.5% | +30.3 | +13.2 |
| India | 75.4% | 84.1% | 77.7% | +8.7 | −6.4 |
| Argentina | 62.1% | 80.3% | 52.2% | +18.2 | −28.1 |
| South Africa | 24.3% | 78.6% | 82.6% | +54.3 | +4.0 |
| Germany | 63.7% | 62.9% | 73.7% | −0.8 | +10.8 |
| Mexico | 35.5% | 61.8% | 63.6% | +26.3 | +1.8 |
| South Korea | 26.3% | 52.3% | 63.1% | +26.0 | +10.8 |
| Australia | 9.6% | 51.0% | 49.1% | +41.4 | −1.9 |
| Indonesia | 38.1% | 41.0% | 42.2% | +2.9 | +1.2 |
| Saudi Arabia | 17.1% | 31.7% | 42.2% | +14.6 | +10.5 |
| Türkiye | 37.1% | 23.5% | 27.5% | −13.6 | +4.0 |
| Russia | 8.0% | 17.2% | 29.1% | +9.2 | +11.9 |
| G20 median (19 countries) | 43.0% | 80.3% | 77.7% |
Changes are in percentage points. Sorted by 2025.
What stands out
India moved down the table without its own ratio falling. In 2007 only Japan and Italy carried more debt relative to output than India's 75.4%. By 2025 India was ninth, at 84.1%. Its ratio went up by 8.7 points over those 18 years; the G20 median went up by 37.3 points, from 43.0% to 80.3%. Six countries overtook India: the United States, France, Canada, the United Kingdom, China and Brazil.
India's rise was among the smallest. Only three G20 members added less: Türkiye, whose ratio fell 13.6 points, Germany (down 0.8) and Indonesia (up 2.9). China added 70.5 points, the United Kingdom 59.3 and the United States 59.0.
The pandemic hit everyone, India in the middle. Between 2019 and 2020 India's ratio jumped 13.9 points, to 90.6%. Canada's rose 28.0 points, the United States' 23.8 and Japan's 22.5. By 2025 India had come back down by 6.5 points. The United States came down to 119.1% in 2022 and has risen every year since, to 123.9%.
The groups tell the same story. The IMF's advanced-economy average went from 68.8% in 2007 to 108.0% in 2025; the emerging and developing average from 35.1% to 73.9%. India stood at more than twice the emerging-economy average in 2007. In 2025 it is about ten points above it.
The projections, clearly labelled
Everything in this section is the IMF's April 2026 forecast, not data.
- 13 of the 19 ratios rise between 2025 and 2031 on the IMF's numbers, the United Kingdom's by only 0.3 points. The biggest projected increases are China (+27.6 points, to 126.8%), the United States (+18.2, to 142.1%) and Brazil (+13.2, to 106.5%).
- Six fall: Argentina (−28.1), Japan (−13.7), Canada (−10.0), India (−6.4), Australia (−1.9) and Italy (−1.0).
- India would sit exactly at the median. At 77.7%, India's projected 2031 ratio is the middle value of the 19, tenth from the top.
The IMF revises these every April and October. Treat them as its present view, not a destination.
How to read it
The 2025 figures are still estimates in places. For India, the IMF uses fiscal years, so the 2025 column is roughly 2025-26, which closed only in March 2026. Expect revisions.
Gross is not net. These figures count what governments owe without subtracting the financial assets they hold. Countries with large public asset holdings can look very different on a net basis.
A ratio is not a risk score. Whether a debt level is a problem depends on who holds the debt, the currency it is in, the interest rate on it and how fast nominal GDP grows. None of that is in this table. The same arithmetic applies to India: a ratio can fall because GDP grows faster than debt, a point our long-run history of India's debt comes back to.
Why it reaches a fund investor
Heavier government borrowing means more government bonds for the market to absorb, which is one input into bond yields and so into what gilt funds earn. Abroad, the same forces bear on the markets that overseas funds of funds buy into; our guide to international mutual funds explains how those funds work. A US-focused fund such as Kotak US Specific Equity Passive FOF is a claim on American companies, not on the US Treasury, but American interest rates and the dollar reach it all the same. Our guide on global macro and Indian funds traces those channels, and currency risk in international funds covers the rupee's part, which supplied close to two-fifths of overseas equity funds' gains in the year to September. Foreign investors' buying and selling of Indian shares is tracked on the FII and DII page.
What this does not tell you
It does not say which economy is safer, which bond market will do better, or where any of these ratios will actually be in 2031. It is a comparison of one IMF measure across 19 countries at three points in time. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or avoid any fund or market.
You can chart any of these countries against India on the debt-to-GDP page.
Frequently asked questions
How does India's debt to GDP compare with other G20 countries?
In the IMF's April 2026 World Economic Outlook data, India's general government debt was 84.1% of GDP in 2025, ninth highest of the 19 G20 member countries. The G20 median was 80.3%. Japan was highest at 206.5% and Russia lowest at 17.2%.
Has India's debt ratio risen as fast as other big economies?
No. From 2007 to 2025 India's ratio rose 8.7 percentage points, from 75.4% to 84.1%. The median G20 country's ratio rose from 43.0% to 80.3%. Only Türkiye, Germany and Indonesia added less than India; China added 70.5 points and the United States 59.0.
What does the IMF project for G20 debt by 2031?
The IMF's projections, which it revises every April and October, have 13 of the 19 G20 countries' ratios higher in 2031 than in 2025. India's is projected to fall to 77.7%, which would put it exactly at the G20 median. These are projections, not results.
This is commentary on published data, not investment advice. WealthTicker is not a SEBI-registered adviser or distributor. Figures are WealthTicker’s own calculations from public data — AMFI’s fund NAVs and disclosures, NSE’s index and FII/DII files, and the fund houses’ monthly portfolios (how we calculate). They are as of the dates stated and can be revised by their source.
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